Friday, July 24, 2009

How a Little 'Friction' Can Change a Competitive Landscape

For a business, losing a customer can feel a little like getting dumped. Questions linger: What did I do wrong? What does that other business have that I don't? How can I ever compete in such a cutthroat market? Well, maybe you do have too many competitors. Maybe thereis something you need to improve. Or maybe the customer simply has personal preferences that are not met by your business.

A recent research paper by Wharton management professor Olivier Chatain and INSEAD strategy professor Peter Zemsky offers some perspective on this topic by combining two types of business strategy analysis. Their advice: When developing business strategies, consider not just what your company does, but how it fits into its industry. Looking at both, you might find ways to improve and woo more customers. You might realize an opportunity to leapfrog over a bigger competitor. Or you might discover that your approach to the market is fine the way it is.

To read the full article please click on the link above. Great information in this competitive landscape.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

'Next Practice' in Reward Means a Focus on Employees as Assets

What will the 'next' reward practices look like? A study by Hay Group and WorldatWork shows that in the coming few years, decisions in reward will be driven by the need to keep employees motivated and engaged despite tight resources and the fear of layoffs. The research reveals a renewed focus on managing human capital as an asset.

Conducted in the challenging first three months of 2009, this Hay Group/WorldatWork study found reward executives focused on the 'here and now': first getting labor costs aligned with the new economic realities, then preparing for future growth. The study revealed five key trends in reward 'next practice'.

From benchmarking to alignment

Firms have become less focused on what the market is doing and more concerned about aligning reward with strategy and performance. Amway International is trying to "find the right balance between employee motivation, cost control, and market competitiveness in our reward programs."

Taking the employee's perspective

Employee needs and wants are becoming more important as organizations seek to maintain motivation in a tough climate. According to McDonald's Corporation: "We design our reward programs, invest in new programs, and beef up current programs based upon the feedback we receive from our employees."

Strengthening the ties between pay and performance

Organizations in this study are looking much harder at the design of short and long-term variable pay programs. Comments from Heineken reinforce this: "We ensure that the objectives in our STI program are broad, simple, quantifiable and measurable and that they accurately reflect the key performance fundamentals of our business."

'Total reward'

Employers are looking to intangible rewards in their quest to keep the workforce engaged when budgets are tight. Collective Brands in the US plans to "provide much more focus on non-monetary forms of rewards and recognition. In tougher economic times, there will be a focus to provide recognition through non-monetary vehicles."

The key role of the line manager

As firms tighten their belts, they are realizing how line managers can help reinforce the pay-to-performance link and communicate the value of the reward program. Microsoft is looking for: "better support for managers to be able to better explain the reward programs and how they link to individual and company performance."

Friday, July 17, 2009

Where the jobs are: Opportunities for Everyone

You can find work — even in today’s economy. In fact, some industries, such as health care, are experiencing particularly good job growth.

According to Keith Emerson, managing director at Lee Hecht Harrison, the New Jersey-based global leader in talent management, “As the baby boomer generation continues to age, the need for health services will continue to grow. In addition, health care reform will be an issue at the forefront of Capitol Hill debates this summer, keeping the future of the industry in the media spotlight.”

Health care isn’t the only industry hiring. Work can be found in a variety of other fields too, including education, technology and engineering. Here are some of the best job opportunities available today:
  • health care
  • education
  • accounting
  • government
  • green collar
  • sales
  • technology
  • engineering
  • legal

Opportunities for college grads


Although there are numerous areas of relative strength, the job situation is not as healthy as it has been in past years. According to CareerBuilder’s Annual College Job Forecast, 43% of employers plan to hire recent college graduates in 2009. That’s a drop from 56% in 2008.6 While the glass isn’t quite half full, many employers are still hiring, though it may take more work and perseverance to get hired.

Visit collegegrad.com to find job postings for recent grads.

You’re never too old


A March 2009 study by Harris Interactive and CareerBuilder found that while 68% of workers age 35 – 44 found new jobs within three months of becoming unemployed, only 46% of those 55 or older found new jobs in the same time frame.7 While older workers and retirees returning to the workforce may have a harder time finding work than many younger people, opportunities do exist.

If you’re in this age group, visit retirementjobs.com, which has a list of certified age-friendly employers.

Regardless of your age or life stage, there are jobs to be had, even in this challenging economy. But you need to know where to look and how to market your skills to match the position. "And don't forget," says Emerson, "that a positive attitude, professional presence and persistence can go a long way."

The complete article can be seen at http://budgeting-investing.ameriprise.com/financial-planning-articles/economic-events/current-job-opportunities.asp?CID=eViewPoint_Loyalty_Subs_0709

Thursday, July 16, 2009

How Can You Find the Most Promising New Opportunities? Hold an Innovation Tournament

Financial innovation is often blamed for having landed the global economy in a mess, but it has also been said that innovation will get us out of the present downturn. Still, companies can be forgiven for feeling that spending time and money thinking about the "next big thing" is a frivolous exercise. After all, every dollar counts these days, and CEOs and their executive teams are busy enough just getting their companies through the day-to-day demands of the recession.

It needn't be that way, according to Christian Terwiesch and Karl Ulrich. As the two Wharton professors of operations and information management point out in their new book, Innovation Tournaments: Creating and Selecting Exceptional Opportunities, if done with greater focus, identifying new opportunities shouldn't be seen as a luxury, but a necessity. They note that creativity and process-driven rigor can actually go hand in hand when it comes to vetting and managing new ideas. One way to do this, they explain, is by making new ideas compete with one another in numerous rounds of vetting -- that is, by running them through "innovation tournaments" -- so that the strongest and most promising ideas make it to the final round.

Rich rewards await companies that make the leap. Among the innovative firms that the professors cite is the U.S. pharmaceutical giant Merck, whose cholesterol-reducing drug Zocor, launched in the early 1990s, has delivered gross profits of $10 billion on an investment of around $500 million.

THink of this as a Six Sigma test for your organization. Don't you think HR should take the lead on initiating this type of innovation with the product management group and the CEO?

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Web 2.0 as an HR Strategy

Companies have increased their reliance on Web 2.0 technologies such as social networking, blogs and webcasts to communicate with and engage their employees, especially as the economic downturn has shrunk funding for human resources, according to the 2009 HR Technology Trends report by consulting firm Watson Wyatt.

The survey, which gauged the opinions of leaders at 181 large companies, found that since the start of the economic downturn, 61 percent of companies have increased their use of e-mail to communicate with employees; 32 percent have increased their use of Webcasts; 13 percent have increased their use of social networking tools; and 12 percent have increased their use of blogs for communication.

The survey also found that companies are adopting role-based employee portals the most rapidly, with 42 percent deploying or piloting the portals and 24 percent planning to adopt them in the next 24 months. The survey also found that while 86 percent of companies currently have an intranet, only 2 percent plan to implement one in the next two years. Rather, companies are planning to deploy technologies that are more personalized, such as blogs (13 percent), wikis (13 percent) and podcasts (10 percent) in the next 24 months, Watson Wyatt found.

I've heard many stories about shrinking HR budgets at federal agencies for quite some time, long before the economic crisis began, so I'm curious to hear from you all about the types of technologies your agencies are using to communicate HR policies and improve employee engagement.

Is this in your plans?

Monday, July 13, 2009

Covering Your Company from the Ledbetter Act

I attended a seminar late last month with our HR Executive Roundtable Group and the discussion with the presenter was on fair and equal pay as a prime topic. A great session I may add and a great presenter. As we all know, there are usually pay discrepancies within our organizations and with the signing of the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act as well as the Paycheck Fairness Act you really need to do the following to cover your company from potential liability. Here is what you should do:
  • conduct a pro-active pay diagnosis under attorney-client privilege to review reasonable measurements and develop business related factors to explain pay;
  • consider remediation strategies to reduce risk;
  • review and strengthen documentation of compensation decisions - a real must here;
  • review current pay practices setting pay-on-hire, promotion, and demotion, developing tools to identify paired comparators;
  • use compa-ratio, rate range differentials/penetration and how they interface with on-line performance measurements;
  • consider that old compensation rule, lost in the years, broad banding; and
  • consider using an outside firm to review your compensation practices and ranges.
These are just a few of the things you as HR leaders should be doing. Suffice it to say that large corporations have already done most of this but my concern is the small to medium firms that do not have the money or resources to review this important issue.

When was the last time you reviewed your compensation practices. Don't forget sales and commission people either.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Total Rewards Today vs Yesterday

Lots of employers are looking to intangible rewards in their quest to keep the workforce engaged and to retain high performers when budgets are tight and profits below expectations. Collective Brands in the US, for example, plans to provide much more focus on non-monetary forms of rewards and recognition. In tougher economic times, in general there will be a focus to provide recognition through non-monetary vehicles with most employers especially the mid-sized ones.

"We will keep monetary rewards for special occasions and focus on non-monetary as the norm" says Bernie Matherson of Excalibur Computer Sequencing.

Hard Times for HR

In the recent issue of Workforce magazine the lead article was about HR and the stressful times they have had over the past year. When you think about the issues you face in downsizing, salary freezes, restructuring, performance management you have to think of way to eliminate or reduce the fear employee have of HR. The article says HR has become the "Angel of Death" because of all the actions you have to carry out in your daily duties. There are ways to reduce this fear and I would like to offer some of them since I have had the same moniker place on me and my department over the years. Here are a couple of ideas:
  • make sure you walk the floors daily
  • interact with employees to minimize the fear by interacting with them
  • hold skip level meetings to identify issues and stimulate business discussions
  • don't hide behind senior management decisions
  • take ownership in driving profitability and stimulate growth by getting employees input
  • host management meetings with you as the moderator
  • don't say "it was managements decision"
  • help employees grow and participate
Think of out of the box ideas to get employees involved so they feel they have a part of the decisions. I know these things work and would think you would too. Email me your ideas on this very important subject. You should also read the article in the June 22nd edition of Workforce or at www.workforce.com.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

BP's Fiona MacLeod: A Change Agent Sees Change 'Addiction'

After 20 years of experience leading change management programs in the U.S., Europe and New Zealand, BP executive Fiona MacLeod has concluded that the corporate world is "addicted" to serial change management programs that consume massive resources but ultimately fail to solve the problems they aim to address. "What really struck me is why so many of these change management programs fail," only to be followed by similar initiatives within one or two years, often before the original program is completed, said MacLeod, president of BP Convenience Retail USA & Latin America.

At the recent Wharton Leadership Conference, co-sponsored by theCenter for Human Resources and the Center for Leadership & Change Management, MacLeod urged her fellow leaders to ask themselves: "How can we ... free ourselves from our addiction to episodic change and move to a much more healthy habit of continuous business improvement?" She compared the phenomenon to a yo-yo dieter who loses weight only to put it back on because he has not come to understand what's causing his weight gain, or has failed to adopt the healthy lifestyle that would keep the weight off.

London-based BP is the third largest global energy company and one of six so-called "big oil" companies, with vertically integrated operations to drill for, refine and market petroleum products. Globally, BP reported revenues of $367.1 billion in 2008. Its ampm stores in the United States and Latin America -- the name is a reference to the fact that they are open day and night -- were launched by ARCO, the old Atlantic Richfield Co., a U.S. oil refiner and marketer that BP purchased in 2000. BP gasoline is marketed under the ARCO brand on the West coast of the United States. The company also uses the BP brand in North America and elsewhere, and the ARAL brand in Europe. In addition to gasoline, the markets offer the usual assortment of convenience store goods.

No 'Big Splashes'

Many change management programs are doomed to failure because "the change we are putting in place is not sustainable -- and sustainability is absolutely crucial," noted MacLeod, who is based in La Palma, Calif. Change initiatives wither in an organization for several reasons:

  • hangeNew leaders are often more concerned with "making a big splash" than with following through on a long-term plan to monitor change and keep the program on track.
  • Organizations often revert to old habits because employees do not understand why change is needed, or they lack the tools and training required to sustain the new approach.
  • Nothing changes because ownership of the change rests with an external team or consultants, rather than with the leaders responsible for running the business.

MacLeod urged managers to attend to "the soft side of change" by putting in place programs to fully engage leaders and employees in the process of creating change and sustaining it over time. "As business leaders, we're very good at the rational part" of change: Identifying what's wrong and how to fix it. But the soft side of change management -- in terms of really engaging people -- is just as important. If people get it intellectually but don't get it emotionally, I don't believe the change will be sustained."

To be engaged, employees must understand the case for change. Managers should provide data showing what's not working and how the change will fix the problem. "Develop your killer slide to make your business case whenever you give a presentation. It's not only why you're changing, but what it's going to look like when you're done. People need to have a sense of what the future looks like, so be very clear on that," MacLeod advised.

Business leaders must own the change agenda and take responsibility for following through on implementing every step in the plan and tracking results to make sure that change continues over time. "Never assume that leaders get it.... We need to take probably 10 times as long in engaging, empowering and educating our leaders than we actually think we do," MacLeod said.

Getting the commitment of leaders is essential to avoid the common pitfall of turning change management into a charade. "You have a workshop, learn some change management jargon, you maybe do some team building, and have a pile of flip charts ... and actually none of the [steps] are properly measured or followed through and it ends up being a waste of time."

It's important also to shift the emphasis of change management from "big splashes" to "everyday performance improvement." You can prevent the typical reversion to old habits by providing tools and training required to continually measure progress toward specific change objectives. "Put written charters and contracts in place. These contracts need to be in people's performance reviews, not something separate," MacLeod said. "You need to constantly look at them and discuss them with people."

Changing the culture to reward the desired behavior is critical to success. Make "heroes of our day-to-day deliverers, not those who make the biggest splash. You reward people on how they treat the customer, how they make decisions, how they simplify the business..... And crucially, all of this has to be done in the spirit of open communication and respect.... If [people are] uncertain and they don't feel respected, the change will never stick," MacLeod said.

Since joining BP in 1988, MacLeod has specialized in business transformation, developing the required breadth of skills in a variety of marketing, HR, supply and distribution roles across the UK and Europe. She has led operational, strategic and marketing elements of the retail business, and most recently led the restructuring of BP's European marketing businesses. A native of Scotland with a Master's degree from Glasgow University, MacLeod was tapped to head the U.S. convenience retail business in 2006, providing her biggest challenge yet: Restructuring the business and transforming the brand for about 1,800 stores from California to Pennsylvania.

MacLeod's project was part of a broader BP reorganization initiative announced in October 2007 to improve the company's efficiency and narrow its performance gap with competitors. When MacLeod embarked on her restructuring program, she had to figure out what was wrong and, more importantly, why three previous initiatives had not worked. She did not want to make the same mistakes.

"The key thing was making our business purpose clear," MacLeod said. "We thought we were there to fill up lots of stand-alone convenience stores and tie up lots of capital, when actually our purpose was to monetize the gas we made at our refineries and make sure we had a secure position in the marketplace for the long term. The question was... how could we put that change in place in a way that would stick."

She chose a bold plan that would require wrenching change. Among BP's 1,800 retail outlets nationwide, 800 were company-owned and operated. She would change the business model to 100% franchised with a revamped ampm store brand and new marketing programs to compete more aggressively.

Selling 800 stores to franchisees would eliminate 10,000 jobs at BP, virtually all of the people employed in BP's convenience retail business. The total included 9,500 store employees and an additional 500 support staff at two headquarters. For the store employees there were no guarantees they would be hired by the new franchise owners. MacLeod and her team faced significant people management hurdles in readying the stores for the conversion process in only 18 months. She would have to motivate store employees to reduce overhead and improve operations, even though they faced "huge uncertainty" about future employment. "Our people were displaying the classic signs of change fatigue.... People were very jaded" and lacked confidence that they could make things better, she said.

"Confidence is absolutely crucial in making change stick. If people are confident in their leadership, themselves and the business purpose, you are way more likely to get a change that is sustainable and actually turns into continuous improvement," MacLeod noted. To build confidence, her team drafted a business case and showed it to the "biggest cynics" in the organization, asking them for a critique and to suggest how to make it work. MacLeod said she built trust by speaking directly to store employees, explaining how the plan would help them beat the competition, and showing that "we had genuine empathy for what they were going through."

So that employees would know what was expected and see their progress, her team communicated month-by-by month performance objectives, including specific plans to reduce overhead costs. "We focused every single day on engaging our people," using town hall meetings, small team meetings and the web to promote continuous improvement, MacLeod said. To prevent backsliding, she offered employees retention bonuses that would be paid at the time the store was sold to the franchisees if the stores were delivered to their new owners with strong financial controls and safety records. "People were very motivated to make sure the business continued to run in a very healthy way."

Celebrating success, recognizing achievement and making people feel good about the business were important tools for sustaining momentum. "People got rewarded for simplifying and improving things. Importantly, it's as much -- if not more -- about the recognition of your peers than it is about financial rewards," MacLeod said.

Know Your Destination

Organizational design helped to lay the foundation for change. "I put my winning, end-state organization in place from day one" rather than waiting to decide which employees would stay to support the franchises and which would leave," MacLeod stated. "We had people who knew they would be leaving in 18 months and they stayed motivated for the entire period because we had been very straight with them. People want and expect clarity from their leaders." Planning was critical to reduce risk as the team rolled out new concepts. "We did lots of road mapping and tested our plans before we went to market," MacLeod said.

In the end, tracking measures showed that employees improved and simplified operations throughout the conversion period, producing $700 million a year in cost savings. Selling the stores freed $1.2 billion in capital for BP to redeploy more productively. Pulse surveys showed morale steadily improved, even though 70% of those responding knew they would lose their jobs, according to McLeod. "The thing I'm most proud of is how our people responded.... You can do some really tough things as leaders and you can do them in a way that people feel valued and respected."

She noted that "it's very easy to get addicted to the change pattern by not getting the change right in the first place, not making the tough calls or bold decisions up-front, maybe going for something half-way, and then allowing things to slip back."

Ultimately, MacLeod said, not just corporations, but the global economy depends on leaders to break the cycle. "The economy needs businesses that are clear on why they exist, clear on what their business model is, and have measures in place to know when they need to make adjustments. We need organizations that can manage continuous improvement in a predictable way."

Thanks to Wharton for this article.

Saturday, July 4, 2009

Happy 4th of July America

May all of you have a great 4th of July weekend & happy birthday America

Towers, Perrin & Watson Wyatt Merger

Recently it was noted that Towers Perrin & Watson Wyatt will merge into a new organization called Towers Watson & Company in an all stock deal valued at $3.5B. What will this do to the pricing of services that you may currently have with one of these companies? My thought is that with one (1) fewer choice for HR consultantancy out there that you will see the price of services increase by at least 10%. What will that do to your budget.

Better start shopping around for new vendors.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Jack Welch Says HR Managers Have the Most Important Job in America

Jack Welch, former CEO of General Electric, believes that HR managers have the most important job in America and that CEOs should value their HR managers as much as their chief financial officers. Welch was the opening session keynote speaker at the Society for Human Resource Management's (SHRM) 61 st Annual Conference and Exposition in New Orleans.

In a twist on the traditional keynote speech, Welch took questions from moderator Claire Shipman, author and national correspondent for ABC News' “Good Morning America,” as well as questions from SHRM members sent via video and Twitter. Not surprisingly, the discussion focused on Welch's views on how HR managers can succeed during the current economic downturn.

Trust. First, Welch told attendees that HR managers must earn the trust of employees. They need to take care of those who do a good job, and “tell it straight” to those who are not performing well.

He believes strongly in rigorous evaluations, noting that no employee should wonder where he or she stands in the company. Weak performers should be “traded out of the team.” Welch explained that this does not necessarily mean they should be fired. Often a weak performer will be a better fit in a different position in the organization.

HR also needs to create an atmosphere of growth and excitement, to make the organization “vibrate so people feel the excitement of tomorrow instead of the pain of today.” Welch urged HR professionals to make their companies more informal, less bureaucratic. In Welch's view, this will help organizations retain their best performers when the economy recovers.

Don't be a victim. Welch advised attendees to stop being victims. To enthusiastic applause, Welch exhorted attendees to make it know to upper management that HR makes a difference and to get out of the “picnic, birthday, and insurance form business.”

When asked how HR professionals can make their CEOs recognize their value to the company, Welch responded with two words: by over delivering. Welch explained that HR professionals have to make their bosses smarter by giving them more than what they ask for. HR also has to insist on having a voice within upper management.

Communicate. Welch finally stated that HR has to engage in reality-based communication. Recognize the uncertainties in the economy, and let employees know what is going on. He believes that HR can gain the trust of employees and of upper management through honest, consistent communication and by sending the same message to employees, upper management and the media.

I could not agree with Jack Welch more, he is spot on as to the value and importance of HR. Do you make the grade to meet Jack's level of competence and value to your organization?

Friday, June 26, 2009

COBRA Coverage Headaches

I have held off writing about this but could not wait any longer. If COBRA is supposed to be seamless to the individuals that extend coverage under the act with their company then you are rudely mistaken.

It seems that when you leave a company usually your coverage lasts until the end of the month then your option to take COBRA starts the first of the following month. Well, don't go to a doctor during the 1st week of the following month because you will show in the system as not covered. It takes time for COBRA to kick in retroactive back the the 1st of the month. Don't get caught because most doctors require payment when services are rendered and you will be out the money until you can get reimbursed by your carrier during this break period.

I've known this for years but had the unfortunate experience recently to tell this story. Be careful. I wish the benefit director and the carriers could get together so this COBRA process is transparent and seamless to the employee. One only knows there is enough anxiety and fear when you are let go from a company and you do not need health and dental issues on top of that immediate stress.

I am sure you readers have had similar experiences or have an answer to this troubling issue.

Why Today's Leaders Need EI More Than Ever

As the economic realities around us get harsher, the need for emotionally and socially intelligent leaders grows more intense. Not managers who can dish out pats on the back, blanket reassurances and wishful thinking. The leaders who will see their organizations through will do it by recognizing others' needs, building relationships and generating extra effort. Forget soft skills. This is the tough stuff with which trust is earned and maintained.

EI defines the difference between a great leader and an average one. The ability to inspire a team, tune in to others' values and motivations and model high standards are the hallmarks of outstanding leaders. And these abilities are grounded in a level of self-awareness that gives great leaders the stamina to maintain trust through challenging circumstances.

Do you determine your CEOs and key stakeholders? Check blog post dated 5/6/09.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Have You Reviewed Your Website ?

In an effort to match customers with products and services some companies really hinder adoption because of all the bells and whistles they make potential customers go through. So, I ask you, "have you checked your website lately?"

There are many ways to make your website friendly to visitors and I will be the first to tell you I do not know all the answers and suggestions. But, as a user of websites on a daily basis "I can point out the common errors webmasters and designers make. Here are just a few:
  • are you forcing visitors to register immediately? You should do this after they are sucked in
  • does your site have a long URL? Keep it short especially when visitors want to paste it into a favorite list or send it to another person.
  • does your site have a search feature? If not people will get frustrated and leave especially if they have to click more that 2X.
  • if your site does not have DIGG, Delicious, or FARK bookmarks you are missing the boat.
  • does your site limit communication only by email? People want options.
  • don't make users retype their email address when registering for asking for information.
  • do not use case sensitive passwords or USERIDs. KISS method is fine for most since we all have too many USERIDS and PW already.
  • do you have widgets in your profile, if not you should.
  • make sure for publishers you get eyeballs on Amazon.com
These are just a few of my ideas based on going to websites and finding things are not as easy a couple of clicks. Remember, and I do not have to tell you this and if I do email me at wgstevens2@gmail.com, people only stay on a site for 1.5 minutes or so if they have to click more than 2X.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Economists: Recession to End in Third Quarter

The economic recession will end during the third quarter of this year, but high unemployment and large federal deficits will continue, according to the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association.

The committee cited consumer spending stabilizing in the first half of this year, allowing businesses to reduce costs and inventories, as well as reducing layoffs and investment spending cutbacks. In combination with the stimulus and an improvement in the financial markets, it is likely the economy will expand in the second half of the year.

Bruce Kasman, committee chairman and chief economist for New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), said the economy will return to growth, but not health.

“Growth in the coming quarters is likely to gather momentum but will not prove sufficiently robust to undo much of the severe damage done to our labor markets and public finances,” Kasman said in a news release.

For the third quarter, the committee forecasts inflation-adjusted gross domestic product will return to positive growth, picking up to a more than 3 percent pace by the second half of 2010.
Also, the committee is projecting an end to the three-year downturn in the housing market, with housing starts rising later this year and home values moving up modestly in 2010.

“Lower prices and low mortgage rates have greatly improved the affordability of homes,” Kasman said. “A recovery in the housing sector will be an important contributor to economic growth.”

However, credit will remain tight and bank economists said jobs will continue to be lost. Unemployment is expected to peak at 10 percent nationally and remain at or above 9.5 percent through next year. Oh by the way Georgia just hit 9.7%.

Budget deficits are expected to remain well above $1 trillion this year and next year. The 13-member committee forecasts the 10-year Treasury bond yield will stay in the 3.75 percent to 4.25 percent range through next year because core inflation is forecast to fall towards 1 percent. However, the committee is concerned about the rising trend in federal debt and the implications for inflation risk beyond 2010.

I think I agree with this economic assessment based on what I see in the world markets and large industrial nations.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Leaving 'Friendprints': How Online Social Networks Are Redefining Privacy and Personal Security

A generation is growing up with social networking web sites such as Facebook and MySpace, casually posting accounts of their lives for their friends -- and the world -- to see. Few of these users realize that the information they post, when combined with new technologies for gathering and compiling data, can create a fingerprint-like pattern of behavior. The information provides opportunities not only for legitimate business purposes, but also for the nefarious aims of identity thieves and other predators, according to faculty at Wharton and elsewhere.

"The way privacy has traditionally been defined is being challenged," according to Wharton legal studies professor Andrea Matwyshyn, who earlier this year organized the Information Security Best Practices Conference at Wharton. Among other topics, the conference addressed security and safety issues raised by the social networks.

Research on online social networking and how it may alter privacy norms is just beginning, according to technology observers. "Our kids today will give everything [in terms of personal information] away, but it's not at all clear how this will shake out in the long run," says Wharton marketing professor Peter S. Fader. "Privacy is a moving target.

Researchers say that privacy thresholds vary by individual and that those boundaries are being tested by social networking. It is hard, they say, to pinpoint the exact impact of social networking on the web. However, it is clear that individuals are increasingly using these sites to keep in touch with friends, find jobs and enhance their careers. Social networking sites drew 139.8 million visitors in April, a 12% increase from 124.4 million in March, according to comScore, a service that measures web traffic. The April survey found that MySpace led the category with 71 million visitors, while Facebook attracted 67.5 million, and Twitter drew 17 million -- an 83% increase.

Mining the Data

Lance Hoffman, a George Washington University computer science professor who spoke at the Wharton conference, noted that by giving up such information as their name, birth date, and a list of their network of friends, users are revealing far more than they know. Third-party applications, he argued, can take that data outside of the friendly confines of a social networking site and combine it with data from other sources to piece together enough information to steal a person's identity. Just a person's name and birth date -- routinely found on a Facebook profile -- can be a useful lever for an identity thief, said Hoffman.

"I've had students who used third-party applications that took friends of friends and used facial recognition to identify them," explains Hoffman. "They didn't know what to do with the information, but someone else might. What happens when the collecting of this information is automated?"

At the conference, Hoffman illustrated how social connections are made online and the ease with which a stranger can become part of a network. He noted that he is regularly added to mailing lists and invited to become a friend -- or "friended" in the social network parlance -- of businesses that use the sites as a marketing tool. Indeed, pages used by businesses on Facebook were recently redesigned to look more like those of individuals.

In addition, the line between professional networking on a site such as LinkedIn, and social networking on sites such as Facebook, "has become very thin," said Hoffman. Many Facebook users might create a more casual persona for themselves on that site than they would on LinkedIn, where they would include nothing but professional information. But both sites can be seen by potential employers and clients -- and complications can ensue. One such complication: When a business contact from the LinkedIn world wants to become your friend on Facebook, do you accept the invitation, giving them access to the photos on your Facebook profile from last summer's rowdy beach party?

And what about the person you don't really know who wants to be your friend because you have some friends in common? According to Hoffman, that new friend may just be mining your social circle for information. As networks grow and more friends of friends (and their friends) are accepted by users, it's unclear who can be trusted.

Ultimately, social networking security rests with each user of the service (those friend invitations can always be declined). Hoffman recommended that social network denizens know the privacy policies -- governing, among other things, how the information you provide can be used -- of the sites they frequent.

At the same time, Hoffman said, web site operators need to make privacy policies easier to understand. "Privacy policies differ in theory and practice. In theory, consumers know about a site's privacy policy and trust the network. The reality is that no one reads the policies. I don't read them myself." Hoffman cited Facebook's privacy policy -- which promises that users have control over their data and what information is shared -- as typically murky. (The most recent version is more than 3,700 words -- more than twice as long as this article.) Hoffman advocates new formats for privacy policies that act as simplified "nutrition labels," like those on food products.

Private Here, Not There

Research conducted by Alessandro Acquisti, a Carnegie Mellon University professor of public policy and management who also spoke at the conference, has found that individuals' notions of privacy are malleable depending on the context of an interaction. According to Acquisti, people are more likely to divulge key personal information -- their photo, birthday, hometown, address and phone number -- on social networking sites than they would on other web sites. His 2005 study highlighted privacy concerns such as online and physical stalking.

"People [say] privacy [is] important to them, yet they engage in behaviors that indicate a remarkable lack of concern," Acquisti told the conference participants. "Privacy decision making and valuations are malleable," but it's unclear what factors lead to more disclosure. One of those factors might be a "herding effect," he said. In one study, Acquisti found that that people will divulge information when they see others doing so. That tendency, he believes, may explain why so many people are willing to dish out personal information on the networks.

Information gleaned from such sites is useful not only to identity thieves, but to marketers and other legitimate business interests. Sometimes, the information can be used to find thieves, according to research co-authored by Shawndra Hill, a Wharton professor of operations and information management, and AT&T researchers Deepak K. Agarwal, Robert Bell and Chris Volinsky. Hill says a person's pattern of behavior on various networks can reveal tell-tale signatures, similar to fingerprints -- or perhaps "friendprints" -- that can be used to solve a wide range of business challenges, from targeted marketing and advertising to fraud detection.

The study, titled "Building an Effective Representation for Dynamic Networks," originated as an approach to fraud in the telecommunications industry. The authors were interested in the problem of identifying phone service subscribers who repeatedly default on their bills by signing up for service under an alias. The problem is not new. However, the focus of the paper was to show how to clearly identify a customer's social network signature and match it to signatures created by customers who had previously defaulted. "Repetitive defaulters may be identified despite their aliases over time by their 'social network signature,'" according to the paper.

"In other words, consumers are who they call, e-mail or IM," says Hill. "Though it is not difficult to sign up under an alias, it is extraordinarily difficult to change one's friends and family." Large telecommunications firms, Internet providers and social networking sites such as MySpace and Facebook may have rich sets of data in which social network signatures can be identified. Hill says the technique is still being perfected; its accuracy rate is currently about 95%.

Still, the security and privacy questions pose tricky issues for marketers, who have been looking for successful social network advertising models. According to research firm eMarketer, spending on such advertising will be about $1.29 billion this year, up from a projected $1.17 billion in 2008. MySpace garners half of the revenue pie. Social network advertising is only a small slice of the projected $25.7 billion that will be spent on online ads in 2009, according to eMarketer.

Wharton marketing professor Eric T. Bradlow says the Holy Grail for marketers is to track consumers and their friends -- and what they say about a product -- via social networks. "

People are more willing to divulge information for social purposes, and the lead users are 18 to 25 years old," Bradlow notes. "The social norms around privacy aren't going to be what they were before."But just as Acquisti noted, acceptable social norms will be subject to context. "Let's imagine that a credit card company had the information you put on Facebook," Bradlow says. "You'd be appalled. It's context. People want to say when and where data is shared."


Thursday, June 11, 2009

Economic Recovery: Are Happy Days Here Again?

Wall Street has just seen a two-month rally that included a whopping 39% rise from the recent rock-bottom prices on the Standard & Poor's 500. In addition, during several consecutive weeks, new U.S. jobless claims have dropped. Even quarterly reports from the battered banking sector have given investors some optimism that the worst-case scenarios will not happen.

So does that mean the band can strike up "Happy Days Are Here Again" to herald the arrival of an economic recovery, and the end of America's longest recession -- now 18 months and counting -- since the Great Depression of the 1930s? Most financial experts at Wharton and elsewhere insist that the much-talked about recovery is not here yet, despite some of the first hopeful data in months -- and they remain concerned that the recovery will be weaker and take longer to gain momentum than past slowdowns.

Maybe there will be a rally today since the European markets are up?

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Creating Advantage

Increasing complexity and change, volatile economic conditions and an ageing workforce are beginning to take a toll on organizations worldwide. Meanwhile some businesses and whole industry sectors are in crisis as they struggle to meet the rising demand for skilled people.

In this climate, people have become the new competitive advantage for business, according to a report by The Boston Consulting Group and the World Federation of Personnel Management Associations. The report, Creating People Advantage: How to address HR challenges worldwide through 2015, is based on a survey of 4741 human resources executives in more than 80 countries as well as interviews with senior executives in 19 countries.

Are you creating advantage with the new workforce dynamics and demographics?

Health Care Reform - Now or Never

Obama has noted that health care reform is a key priority for his administration. This is a long time coming since Clinton failed during his administration. There is a move in congress to change benefits and make it more affordable for all Americans. Further, the reform is focused on leveling benefits equal to what the congress receives now.

Senator Max Baucus (D-Mont.) said he is drafting the health reform measure, which he expects to unveil next week. He told reporters that taxing employer-provided benefits is "perhaps the best way to raise money for an overhaul of the health-care system" and offered details about the form that tax is likely to take.
Baucus said his proposal is likely to cap benefits at "a level higher than the actual benefit that members of Congress receive today." An employer-provided plan worth less than that level would remain tax-free, he said, while any benefit exceeding the cap would be taxed as ordinary income.


Such a tax, if adopted, would be phased in over "several years," Baucus said. And it would be likely to "grandfather" in health benefits set as part of a collective-bargaining agreement, he said, allowing union plans to remain tax-free until new contracts can be negotiated.

Baucus declined to say how much money the proposal would generate. The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that taxing employer benefits above the value of the Federal Employees Health Benefit Plan, adjusted for inflation, would generate nearly $420 billion over the next 10 years -- a sizable chunk of the $1 trillion or more likely to be needed to expand coverage for the uninsured.

Is this the beginning and will it ever pass. there are 47 million Americans without health coverage and there is a large silent group that is currently under insured. Help may be on the way.